Ujjwal: The situation getting resolved peacefully is great news and its perhaps correct for Mr Shahbaz Sharif to call it a great victory for the people in Pakistan, but what do you think is going to happen next?
Munizae: There are many things and issues that need to be resolved and it’s difficult to predict events in Pakistan, as the situation is always volatile and the stakes high. Nevertheless now that the Chief Justice has been reinstated, a battle for Punjab will begin, which is the richest province in Pakistan. Though it initially seemed like PPP would form govt with the PML (Q) ( a party once backed by Musharraf) in Punjab, it is now clear that the PML (N) is in a better position to form government. So once governor rule is lifted from the province, the Sharif brothers will regain control of Punjab. There have also been several petitions that have been filed in the courts challenging former General Musharraf’s 8 year rule. He has been accused of high treason and of savagely violating the constitution of Pakistan. Another petition will be filed against Musharraf very soon for the murder of Baloch leader Akbar Bugti. This petition, if entertained by the courts, carries weight and could land Musharraf into trouble. It would be interesting to see if the army can protect their former Chief of Army Staff against a series of petitions.
Ruchi: Pakistan’s power structure is fissiparous with parallel power centers in the military (four military coups in 60 years) and a weak civilian government. Now we have a rising Islamic fundamentalist belt in north-west Pakistan (Shariah rule in Swat valley). Where do you think Pakistan is headed?
Munizae: This is a very complicated question with no simple answer. It is true that we have a weak civilian government, but many in Pakistan and around the world are now convinced that democracy is the only way forward for Pakistan. The new Obama administration’s fresh approach to Pakistan is a very positive sign. They are now engaging with the people and politicians of Pakistan rather than the military. And that can only bring positive change. Moreover the Taliban do not seem to have any local support as they have targeted schools, hospitals and even mosques. People have little respect for them, and at best they are feared in most areas that they control. The politicians in power ( i.e. the PPP and the ANP, Awami National Party) have made it clear that they sincerely want to fight back the Taliban. But the onus of reclaiming territory from the Taliban lies on the military. If they genuinely fight the Taliban, Pakistan can be rescued; otherwise we are all headed for more turmoil and violence.
Ruchi: Pakistan has recently seen the highest inflation levels in the past three years, depreciating currency and depleting foreign reserves (which led to a $7 B loan from the IMF). In addition, there is strong US presence/intermediation, which angers many Pakistanis. In this situation, can any leader (military or civilian) successfully walk the tightrope between the Islamic hardliners and moderates?
Munizae: I think in Pakistan, like anywhere in the world, people want simple things. They want clean drinking water, electricity, job opportunities and a decent education for their children. So I think that the economy will be a priority for most politicians or even military leaders. But over the years Pakistan has become more conservative in many ways, and this has made it very difficult for secular leaders, like Asfandywar Wali Khan of the ANP.
Ujjwal: Do you think a democratic system of governance is difficult to implement in Pakistan, in other words, is a coup always a possibility? On the other hand, this is the biggest civil disobedience demonstration in Pak history. Is this Pakistan’s citizens way of finally asserting democratic ideals?
Munizae: I think the ground had already been softened for asserting the people’s will. Let us not forget that it was the lawyer’s movement against Musharraf that paved the way for democracy to return in Pakistan. It was only after the lawyer’s took to the streets, that Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif ordered their party workers to join the movement. The chaos and the challenge to Musharraf emboldened them to devise a return to Pakistan and negotiate with America for a return to democracy. So I think what happened on March 16th was a build-up and it was encouraging to see that when a democratic government was pushed into a corner it behaved better than a military one. I also feel that the media has played a crucial role in creating awareness and building a democratic culture. Pakistanis now jealously guard their democracy and I think that in this new Pakistan, it would not be that easy to swallow another military takeover. There is no international or national appetite for a military seen as corrupt and soft on militants.
Interesting. There’s been some talk over here about international pressure on India to ease on LOC troops … Regarding the Swat Valley, I wonder what role he perceives for India.