Is India moving towards a civil war?

Every time I see a crush of (near) destitute men (waiting in long lines for handouts of food; lunch hour in a factory area etc), I get a sense of foreboding. There’s so many, impoverished, teeming like ants, in tedious/exhausting exploitative jobs or without, living life in penury, aware, either through stark juxtaposition or mass media, of extreme disparity. I wonder if it’s only a matter of time before these ant-like people will be overcome with rage at the hopelessness of their life, and instead of turning inwards direct their rage at me, and what I represent (self-absorbed rich Indian, occupied in consumption, selling “value”, unseeing the dying). Most Indians are unashamedly disparaging of Africans: their color (manifestation of our self-loathing of our own brown color); their extreme poverty; their raging diseases; the never-ending conflicts. But when I read about farmer suicides, of the growing insurgency in the red corridor, our increasing terrorism, rising Hindu fundamentalism, growing clout of Mayawati/Modi, it seems to me that we are but few steps removed from a civil war ourselves. Here’s some broad trends to consider (loosely based on the Collier Hoeffler model):

Widespread poverty: India will be the next world superpower. 9% growth rate. Trillion dollar economy. G8 should be expanded to include India. India has the highest number of billionaires, third only to America and Russia. India Shining. India Poised. Incredible India. … Easy tiger! In all the euphoria, some sobering facts. In the 2008 Global Hunger Index, India ranked 66 in a list of 88 countries (transitional/developing). We have one of the highest incidence of child malnutrition, and our hunger index category of “alarming” is comparable with many sub-Saharan African countries. Notably, we are one of the only two countries with an “alarming” hunger index score yet we are a net cereal exporter. Last year, our debt-laden farmers driven to suicide made global news (the current government in a populist ill-conceived move waived Rs 72K crores in loans without any real benefit). All this is not just happenstance – India sublimated from a predominantly agricultural economy to a service/knowledge economy, marginalizing legions without the opportunity of education and vocation. We offer no social safety net (instead throwing the uneducated/poor in competition with large multinationals in the name of free markets and efficiency) and treat each wave of migrants with scorn while reaping benefits of ever cheaper labor. Some other disturbing facts: we have the largest youth population in the world; our unemployment rate stands at over 7 percent (~80 M people; underemployed remain uncounted); and education is either unavailable or crap (the granular detail under even the SSA is often disheartening). In addition, the poor die everyday either through random or systematic violence of state tyranny or neglect (e.g., thousands die annually in floods). All told, the opportunity cost of rebellion in India is negligible.

Increasing Polarization: In our world superpower country, we now have the emergence of three important political factions: BSP (Mayawati), Hindutva based far-right parties (RSS, BJP, Shiv Sena), and the far-left Communist parties. Mayawati’s support is driven by caste (and now class) and Hindutva parties drive a religion based campaign, which is but a proxy for high-caste (and mostly middle-class) Hindus. Add to this the growing communist/separatist movement of militants staffed predominantly by Dalits and Adivasis and sustained violence against Christians in the East. All of these movements are based on polarization of either caste, religion or class, and are an interesting instance of both greed and grievance as driving force (the greedy rich manipulating the legitimate grievances of the poor). India has a bloody history of sustained violence between Hindus and all other religions (Muslim, Sikh, Christians). Violence against Dalits and Adivasis is widespread, and contained till now only because of their hitherto nascent political identity.

Increasing economic disparity and corrupt state: The Collier Hoeffler model discounts economic disparity. However, economic disparity is a significant catalyst for anarchy in our country for two reasons: first, the poorest in our country live like animals – uneducated, squatting in filth, born in oblivion, dying nameless. They have no opportunities for growth or even sustenance, and no recourse to remedy because our systems are completely opaque (and obviously corrupt). Since each individual is minuscule compared to the system, the individual becomes helpless. The farmers are committing suicide in helplessness right now – killing someone is but a flip side of the extreme action. Second, with increasing disparity, there is a tendency to deprioritize and dehumanize the poor. Thousands perish, nameless statistics. Individuals become mere rounding errors in business plan models. This is apparent when as a heads of large companies or states, we allow “free market” competition (or side effects thereof) throwing the current population in peril with no safety nets. Seeds which germinate but once (so if a farmer has a failed crop, he can’t even reuse his seeds), untreated drug waste in Andhra Pradesh, displacement of the poor for development of SEZs etc. Both the Indian government and the corporates (including mass media) lack focus on economic development, happy to cater to the middle-class and their consumption. As a country, we should be wary of our convergence on consumption when large swathes of our population are not even able to subsist.

Tyrannical police state: Most schooled middle-class Indians can cite with scorn the excesses of the Bush presidency. The suspension of civil rights under the Patriot Act, illegality of Guantanamo Bay detention camp, of losing moral high ground with state advocated torture. But what of India? What of our own jails, where thousands waste without ever being charged? Of the impunity with which our Hindutva political factions murder Muslims? Of our human rights violations in Kashmir? Of the almost daily shootings of Naxals (or those labeled so by the police). Of POTA and the ridiculous revised anti terror law. Of the daily corruption that we all encounter at the smallest and highest offices of the state. Of Amar Singh and his alleged one crore on the Lok Sabha floor. Of the shocking rapes and murdered children in Mayawati’s UP. India is (or is fast moving) towards a failed state. And we all know what happens in a country where the government is both weak, and favors a small section of the society.

Hostile neighbours: India shares its borders with China, Pakistan (ignoring Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Burma for a second), both countries with disputed territories (and previous wars) with India. Pakistan has a weak civilian government, and a strong organization (ISI) that derives large part of its legitimacy in sustained conflict with India. We saw efforts at destabilization with the Mumbai attacks, and now a partnership between China and Pakistan. Tangentially, China has a history of poor civil rights (and its immediate corollary: opaque government), and a government that drove economic growth with a glut of cheap manufacturing exports. With the global meltdown and nations becoming increasingly protectionist, China and India have already locked horns over the 6-month Indian ban on Chinese toy imports. If there were an outbreak of violence within India, there is some reason to believe that these two governments will stoke further fire.

There are of course some arguments against civil war in India. First, absence of lootable commodities like diamonds (e.g., Sierra Leone, Angola) to fund rebel groups. Second Indians remains rather domesticated, and the ensuing social and community ties encourage people to stay lawful. Even poor migrant workers, often four men living in a hundred square feet room, making a paltry living working a soul-destroying job, send money home. Maybe there are other reasons. However, we are not trying to figure odds of a civil war to make a Sunday afternoon wager – the essence is that as a country we are not moving towards a sustainable progress. The legitimacy of our ruling elite (government, corporations, mass media), and even our middle-class aspirations is contingent on providing (at a minimum) basic dignity of life for all our citizens and residents. We can choose to rush about with acquisition blinkers on, but we can’t pretend to be shocked when we read in the morning news that a cornered animal pounced and killed his would-be killer.